THE 1932 AND 2008 ELECTIONS
2/1/2012
History repeated itself in 2008, as the presidential campaign and election were very similar to 1932 in terms of candidates, issues, and results. And the American people lost both times.
In both instances, the people were presented with two bad choices as the two main party candidates. In 1932, Republicans were in disarray due to the Great Depression. In 2008, they were in disarray due to the wars, financial crises, and economic recession. The people turned to the Democrats in both elections to fix problems that they believed had been caused by Republicans. In both cases, this only made things worse.
The Election Backgrounds
In 1932, America was mired in what would become the Great Depression, and because Republicans controlled the presidency and Congress, they were seen as responsible for the crisis. The Republican in 1932 was incumbent President Herbert Hoover. Arguing that “rugged individualism” would overcome the depression, Hoover declared that it was not government’s job to intervene in the crisis. However, Hoover did intervene through tax increases, spending increases, and corporate bailouts.
In 2008, America was mired in an economic recession, and because Republicans controlled the presidency and Congress for most of the decade, they were seen as responsible for the crisis. The Republican in 2008 was John McCain, a candidate who pledged to represent rugged individualism but routinely supported government intervention in the economy.
Just prior to the 1932 election, Hoover approved the creation of the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, which authorized spending $49 million to “stimulate” the economy. Of this, nearly $33 million went to bailing out failing banks. Most voters believed that Hoover was worsening the depression through excessive taxing and spending, and they sought an alternative that would reduce such excess. Many thought that the answer was Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Just prior to the 2008 election, McCain supported President George W. Bush’s $700 billion TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program), which aimed to “stimulate” the economy by bailing out failing banks and insurance companies. Most voters believed that McCain and his fellow Republicans would worsen the economy through more spending and bailouts, and they sought an alternative that would reduce such excess. Many thought that the answer was Democrat Barack Obama.
Campaign Rhetoric: Roosevelt versus Obama
Roosevelt accused Hoover of “reckless” and “extravagant” spending, and even of trying “to center control of everything in Washington.” Roosevelt’s running mate, John N. Garner, warned that Hoover was “leading the country down the path of socialism.” These attacks convinced many voters that Roosevelt would reduce government intervention in the economy if he was elected.
Obama attacked the Republican leadership that was perceived to be responsible for the economic downturn, and he declared that McCain would only bring more of the same. Obama also called President Bush’s requests to raise the national debt ceiling a “failure of leadership.” These attacks convinced many voters that Obama would spend tax dollars with more prudence than the Republicans if he was elected.
Roosevelt’s pledge for a “new deal for the American people” offered few specifics on how he would handle the crisis. He promised to “abolish useless offices” and “eliminate unnecessary functions of Government.” Stating that “Government—Federal, State, and local—costs too much,” Roosevelt pledged to balance the budget.
Obama’s pledge to bring “hope and change” offered few specifics on how he would govern. He promised to cut the budget deficit in half by the end of his first term, and he pledged to cut wasteful spending and eliminate overlapping government bureaucracies if elected.
Election Results
Roosevelt was backed by a broad coalition of big city political machines, progressives, minorities, organized labor, and intellectuals. He enjoyed immense popularity during his campaign because he exuded charisma and confidence, and he was seen by desperate voters as a fresh alternative to Hoover and 12 years of stodgy Republican leadership. As such, he easily defeated Hoover in the general election. In addition to the presidency, voters gave Democrats control of the both houses of Congress as well.
Obama was backed by a vast alliance of big city Democrats, progressives, minorities, organized labor, intellectuals, and the liberal media. He enjoyed immense popularity during his campaign because he exuded charisma and confidence, and he was seen by angry voters as a fresh alternative to the stodgy McCain and the Republicans. Thus, he easily defeated McCain in the general election. Voters also increased the Democratic majority in Congress, giving Democrats control of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.
Election Aftermaths
After campaigning against Hoover’s excessive taxing and spending, Roosevelt quickly ditched his promise to balance the budget, and his “New Deal” merely accelerated Hoover’s policies through unprecedented spending and centralization of power in Washington. Consequently, Roosevelt only made the depression worse, and the modern welfare state was born.
After campaigning against the Republicans’ fiscal irresponsibility, Obama quickly ditched his promise to cut the deficit in half, and he merely accelerated Republicans’ policies through unprecedented spending, debt, and centralization of government in Washington. Consequently, Obama only made the economy worse and brought America closer to socialism than ever before.
What 2012 Could Bring
In 1936, Republicans could not provide a clear-cut alternative to Roosevelt’s policies, and he easily won re-election. Although Roosevelt’s interventionism may have done more harm than good to the economy, his charm and personal magnetism appealed to people who believed that he was doing his best to combat the depression.
While Roosevelt’s charisma concealed his failed policies from many voters, other presidents such as Jimmy Carter had no such appeal to fall back on. In 1980, most voters agreed with Carter’s assertion that America was facing a “crisis of confidence,” and they responded by replacing him with Ronald Reagan. The struggling economy was rejuvenated under Reagan in the 1980s.
Presidents seeking reelection generally lose if the economy is bad (examples are Carter, Gerald Ford, and George H.W. Bush), but Roosevelt proved that charm and charisma could overcome poor policy decisions. If the Republican nominee offers a clear-cut alternative to Obama’s policies, he will likely win in November just as Reagan won in 1980. If not, then Obama will likely follow Roosevelt’s example of 1936 and win re-election.
WalterCoffey.com
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